A $20,000 Proof of Concept

October 26th, 200616 Comments

College Startup was recently approached by an investor with a very simple proposal:

I’ve been following your blog for a while and I have a proposition for you. I’ve been wondering whether the web can offer similar or better returns than the stock market. In some of your articles, you hint at this possibility. I’d like to take $20,000 and invest it with the sole purpose of gaining an annualized return of 15% over 3 years. That means that at the end of three years, you should have recouped the initial investment of $20,000 plus $10,417. The final sum should be around $30,000.

The only caveat to this proposition is that you will need to present to me a proposal detailing how you’d use the $20,000 to acheive the equivalent of an annualized return of 15%. Notice that you are at a disadvantage because not only do you need to generate the 15% return, but you will also need to recoup any of the $20,000 spent on this project. While I have little interest in anything but “proof of concept” for the idea that investing in web content makes sense, you will need to convince me that you have a legitimate plan in place if we were to move forward.

We’ve gotten permission, via phone conversation, from the investor to make this proposal public on our blog. Part of the proposal not included in this blog post would reward us with a guaranteed share of the returns, a bonus in the five figures for acheiving the goal, plus the potential for significantly more money to work with down the road. To put things mildly the prospects of doing this are both thoroughly exciting and nerve-wrecking When you’re working for someone else, it’s put-up or shut-up time, if you know what I’m saying.

We’ll keep you posted on how things proceed. Right now, we’re putting together multiple business models that could loosely be broken into three categories: 1) Put all your eggs in one basket 2) Put all your eggs in 2-3 baskets or 3) Put your eggs in dozens of baskets. Right now, we’re leaning towards 1 or 2. One allows us to put all of our energies into a single project, which increases the chance of producing something REALY successful. Two provides some backup protection, but still requires some degree of success with each site. Three provides security in numbers, but would also keep us from producing anything truly worthwhile.

Any thoughts or suggestions?

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A $20,000 Proof of Concept

chika | October 26, 2006

this is the most interesting post I have read for a long time.

I think diversification is the key i.e. option3 Sounds very exciting. Wow all this just from writing the college-startup blog? Gives me lots of ideas

The biggest winners of the new economy will be those who can develop the infrastructure and provide the content ( all the while keeping your overheads very low)

Good Luck and please give updates of this project!!

Ryan | October 26, 2006

Chika,
You are probably right. We’ve put option 3 back on the table. Here’s why. The method that we develop needs to be 1) repeatable and 2) consistent. Wide-scale diversification seems smart.

Here are some of our thoughts so far:

Use some of the money to buy and flip sites at SitePoint with the aim of generating 5% return per month.

Use some of the money to buy currently profitable sites that can reliably double their investment in 3 years.

Use most of the money to “take the bull by the horns” so to speak and totally nail 5-10 high-paying niche sites.

Of course, can’t forget to spend some of the money to get some great site designs too!

chika | October 26, 2006

Yep Ryan,

Go for it

Once you’ve proven the concept, I don’t see any reason why you can’t put a roadshow together, do a presentation to lots of rich investors and start a fund! As long as you can show that the ROI exceeds all other alternative investments(including the stock market, real estate, oil wells etc)

People are putting together hedge funds dealing in IP so why not.

Ryan | October 26, 2006

That’s actually what the long term plans are. I’m seriously hoping that proof of concept arrives earlier than 3 years if you know what I’m saying;-)

Nick | October 26, 2006

That is one interesting post.
Most of the time, the idea behind the site comes first, and the money flows to the ideas. This really changes things, with the money coming before the site idea.

I can’t wait to see if this large scale investing in content sites works out in the long run.

Ben | October 27, 2006

I actually had a few people approach me about this when I owned College Startup. One person was well on his way to having $1,000,000 in investment and wanted help making the right investments. I wasn’t interested in managing a lot of sites with other peoples money - too much pressure.

It’s definitely possible to earn a high return on the internet, but it’s also possible to make killer returns in the stock market. Hell, you could even make a great return at the World Series of Poker if you play your cards right ;)

HART (1-800-HART) | October 27, 2006

Option #3 (wide scale diversification) sounds ’safe’ .. since it’s really not your money and you can’t risk losing the entire stake on one lousy bet. However, I think I would lean towards Option #2. You have to focus on the end game, being that 5-figure bonus and reaching your goal. Maybe once you have proven success on a few projects, you can take your bonus and expand on more projects - or obtain other investors to back future and larger projects.

Besides .. flipping sites trying to earn 5% sounds nice, but can you keep that up? And, what if you have to start working maintaining the sites before flipping? (painting, renovating, maintaining etc just like any property).. you will spread yourself thin having too many projects on the go.

Just my 2cents. Regardless, it’s an interesting venture to watch. I hope you keep everyone informed of the good and the bad.

Ryan | October 27, 2006

Ben,
Possibility is one thing. But the real question has to do with reliability of return. Stock equities predictably return between 8-15% per year, averaged out over 10 year periods. So that’s what you should expect if you are investing in the stock market.

Making money by playing poker …well it’s not reliable, and even if you’re great, the level of control you have over your ability to succeed is too low.

The question of interest is whether there is a systematic way (reliable and repeatable) to return a consistent 15+% per year by investing directly in web content.

Jamsi | October 29, 2006

Okay I’m going to take a different stance here. I’m suprissed a few of you are mentioning option 3 .. Think about option 1 a little. All the best sites on the web went with option 1. Digg? Delicious? 9rules? They all focused on making a killer site and as long as you have the idea .. a unique idea that will break barriers .. option 1 is all you need!!

Ryan | October 30, 2006

Jamsi,
Good ideas are hard to come by. Good ideas that are properly executed are even harder to come by. For every Digg, Delicious, etc. there are hundreds of failures.

The reason for considering option 3 is that two of the desiderata of this project are *repeatability* and *reliability* - trying to duplicate Digg, Delicous, etc. would be tantamount to gambling.

David Krug | October 30, 2006

Jamsi,
Interestingly enough 9rules actually went with option number two IMO investing time and money in Fine Fools, before deciding that wasnt worth their time. Before that they had established BusinessLogs another Option 2 scenario, thirdly they continue down that path with BusinessLogs, and ScrivsTyme.

Need I say more about Digg, with their Online TV Network?

Ben | October 30, 2006

9rules? I think the point of this is to make money ;)

David Krug | October 30, 2006

hahaha now that’s funny.

Ryan | November 2, 2006

The ante has been upped to $60,000. We are also considering how we can involve the College Startup readership. Stay tuned.

gr3cko | November 5, 2006

Ryan, this is certainly an interesting concept. There remains masses of scope online to make serious returns (15% of investment seems fairly conservative). Study web 2.0 sites and think niches. A wide driftnet approach loses interest in users.

Ray Dotson | November 9, 2006

I’m coming in late to the conversation, but I find the whole concept to be fascinating. I’ve heard of other sites being VC-funded, of course, but this seems to be slightly different take.

I would be concerned about the amount of money involved myself. There’s going to be a temptation to overspend, a la the dotcom bubble. I’ll be watching to see how things work for you. Good luck!

Share your thoughts!!!

performancing hive

A $20,000 Proof of Concept was written by Ryan on October 26th, 2006 at 10:26 am and posted in Business Ideas, College-Startup News, Finance

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